The African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA), established in the late 2010s
by member states of the African Union (AU), stands as a monumental agreement
uniting the continent's vast economy, encompassing 1.3 billion people. Through
numerous rounds of negotiations, this landmark deal has garnered support from 54
signatories, with 47 having officially ratified it as of February 2024. The
AFCFTA represents a significant opportunity not only to enhance intra African
trade but also to advance the economic development agenda, particularly in terms
of employment.
By fostering greater connectivity and cooperation among African
nations, the AFCFTA holds immense potential for job creation and value
generation within the region. This prospect not only signals the dawn of a new
era of industrialization and business expansion but also aligns with the
overarching goals outlined in the African Union's Agenda 2063. Beyond its
economic implications, the AFCFTA serves as a symbol of solidarity and unity
among the diverse peoples of Africa, aiming to break down barriers and
facilitate more efficient movement of goods across borders.
The scope of the AFCFTA is comprehensive, addressing various aspects of trade
policy, including tariffs, trade facilitation measures, regulatory standards
such as sanitary and phytosanitary standards, technical barriers to trade,
intellectual property rights, and competition policy. Moreover, the project has
been instrumental in assisting AU member states in developing national
strategies tailored to their unique market characteristics, ensuring effective
implementation of the AFCFTA.
For instance, Zambia has taken proactive steps by drafting its national
implementation strategy and conducting validation workshops with key
stakeholders. This strategic approach exemplifies the commitment of individual
countries to fully embrace and leverage the opportunities presented by the
AFCFTA. It underscores the significance of equipping nations with the necessary
tools and resources to navigate the complexities of ratifying and implementing
such a transformative agreement.
In essence, the AFCFTA represents a monumental leap forward for Africa,
promising to unlock new avenues for economic growth, job creation, and
sustainable development. By fostering greater integration and cooperation, the
agreement not only seeks to enhance trade dynamics but also to foster a sense of
unity and solidarity among African nations. Through strategic planning and
collective action, countries like Zambia are paving the way for a future
characterized by shared prosperity and mutual benefit within the African
continent.
Factual Background
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was ratified in Kigali during a
March 2018 African Union Summit and began its operational phase in June 2019.
Scheduled for a review in 2024, this agreement signals a departure from the
global trend of declining confidence in regional integration and underscores
African nations' commitment to addressing the longstanding issue of economic
fragmentation dating back to colonial times. AfCFTA is viewed as a pivotal step
towards achieving Africa's developmental goals, with no viable long-term
strategic alternative in sight. While the implementation phase officially began
on January 1, 2021, there has been limited evidence of a substantial increase in
trade volume under the new rules.
The Guided Trade Initiative, initiated in October 2022 with seven participating
countries, served as a pilot project, showcasing the feasibility of
intra-African trade under AfCFTA procedures. However, it also revealed several
challenges, including customs officials' unfamiliarity with tariff schedules,
extended delivery times of up to six months, and high freight costs. These
obstacles are understandable for several reasons: regional agreements typically
require time for full implementation, as evidenced by the lengthy process in the
European Union; the AfCFTA's gradual tariff elimination extends until 2034, and
non-tariff barriers are considered more significant obstacles to intra-African
trade than tariffs, necessitating time for resolution.
It's worth noting that with 55 member countries, AfCFTA constitutes the largest
trading bloc globally. While negotiations were anticipated to be complex and
time-consuming, considerable progress has been made in establishing the
legislative framework for AfCFTA. Phase 1 negotiations covering goods, services,
and dispute settlement mechanisms have concluded, oversight committees have been
established, and work programs adopted.
Nearly all African member states have
signed the agreement, with the majority having ratified it by December 2023.
Tariff reduction schedules and services schedules have been adopted, alongside
rules of origin, except for vehicles and textiles and clothing. Negotiations on
key associated protocols, including investment, intellectual property, and
competition, have also been finalized and adopted. Nonetheless, there is growing
impatience for rapid trade growth under AfCFTA rules.
Battling Global Economic Headwind AFCFTA
AFCFTA serves as a homegrown solution to bolster industrial development, create
new business opportunities, generate employment, and alleviate poverty in
Africa. Since the beginning of 2019, the United Nations Economic Commission for
Africa, along with partners such as the African Union Commission, the
International Trade Centre, UNCTAD, and independent trade experts, has been
collaborating on a project funded by the European Union.
This project has been
active in over 35 countries, engaging with various stakeholders including the
private sector, government entities, media, civil society, and academia to
facilitate discussions on AFCFTA at both national and regional levels. External
factors beyond Africa's borders have been influencing policy-making and economic
outcomes, with export revenues, diaspora transfers, and foreign investments
serving as significant channels through which global forces impact the African
economy.
However, despite these efforts, the African economy has been facing
challenges with increasing illiquidity, instability, and stagnation since
2013/14, exacerbated by recent global headwinds. While the ongoing conflict in
Ukraine has posed challenges for Nigeria, domestic policy responses in various
countries have also contributed to adverse economic impacts.
Option For Resolving Global Headwind
The primary recommendation is to accelerate industrialization at a rapid pace.
Manufacturing has historically proven to be a crucial driver of economic
development. In sub-Saharan Africa, a significant portion (almost 47) of
economic activity is attributed to the services sector, which typically exhibits
low productivity and has limited impact on per capita incomes. Manufacturing
stands out as the sector capable of efficiently transforming unskilled informal
labor into productive formal employment.
Currently, a substantial portion (60%)
of African imports consists of manufactured goods. By localizing some of this
production, Africa can retain a larger share of the value domestically and
generate new employment opportunities.
As manufacturing expands, there will also
be increased demand for more sophisticated services. However, Africa must adapt
its approach to industrialization, as relying solely on wage differentials may
become less effective with the advancement of robotics and AI technologies,
potentially eroding any cost advantages. With shifting supply chains and
evolving global trade dynamics, AFCFTA presents significant prospects for
investment across the African continent.
The next recommendation is to reduce dependence on external financing and
instead focus on mobilizing domestic capital. The strength of the U.S. dollar
and high interest rates pose challenges for debt servicing, making it imprudent
to continue relying on international creditors. Africa should leverage its own
wealth, starting with the $2.3 trillion of investment funds, pension funds, and
sovereign wealth funds currently held overseas. Repatriating these funds could
be facilitated by deepening domestic capital markets, which have remained
underdeveloped and hindered industrialization in Africa.
AFCFTA plays a role in
catalyzing capital formation by enabling the aggregation of small savings into
larger investments. Increased participation in capital markets by citizens
reduces the need for foreign borrowing, signaling competitiveness to investors.
A well-regulated and robust financial market functions like a smoothly operating
combustion engine, efficiently directing capital to where it's needed. The
success of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System, facilitating instant
cross border payments in local currency, could not only facilitate intra-African
trade but also reduce reliance on hard currencies like the U.S. dollar and
third-party banks in the U.S. or Europe.
Role Of AFCFTA In Entrepreneurial Development
African countries have a considerable portion of their population excluded from
traditional banking services, creating space for the emergence of local
financial innovators. Fintech startups, empowered by the digital revolution at
the core of AFCFTA, are taking center stage in this domain. The ascent of
fintech in Africa is a recent and significant phenomenon, with startups offering
diverse financial services like savings, loans, insurance, and other digital
financial products to the general public.
Moreover, fintech ventures are
expanding into realms intersecting climate and finance, providing offerings such
as sustainable banking, climate insurance, impact investing, and ESG
(Environmental, Social, and Governance) reporting.
To bolster the fintech
sector, it's crucial to establish supportive policies involving financial
regulatory bodies and promote inclusive digitalization. The demographic outlook
is promising, with projections indicating that over 40% of the global youth
population by 2030 will be African, and the African youth population is expected
to reach 830 million by 2050.
This demographic shift presents an exciting
opportunity for young individuals to contribute to economic development and
positively influence millions of lives through entrepreneurship. Africa already
exhibits some of the highest rates of entrepreneurial activity globally, with
more than one in five working-age Africans initiating new businesses, and a
significant majority of young people planning to do so within the next five
years. Entrepreneurship in Africa is often plagued with problems including but
not limited to:
- Lack of access to appropriate funding instruments required to start, maintain, and grow a business.
- High cost of operations due to inadequate infrastructure.
- Poor macroeconomic conditions.
- Government policies unsupportive to business.
Combining these challenges with sluggish economic growth and inadequate social
protection programs, African economies are anticipated to face fewer economic
hurdles in the future. AFCFTA will bolster existing entrepreneurial models in
Africa, ensuring that young individuals are not misled by unrealistic
expectations of future prosperity and stability. It is imperative for academic
institutions, governments, donors, and financial backers to actively foster a
conducive environment for entrepreneurship to flourish, with the aim of
generating substantial employment opportunities across Africa.
The Role Of AFCFTA In African Internal Policies
Accelerating domestic resource mobilization (DRM) is a key objective of the
AFCFTA, which aims to achieve this through expedited reforms of tax systems.
This includes enhancing DRM through improved audits and compliance measures,
addressing leakages, and broadening the tax base. Additionally, the agreement
seeks to promote financial innovation and inclusion within African economies.
While the financial systems in Africa have expanded in recent years, there
remains a significant gap in financial inclusion. The AFCFTA aims to empower
marginalized groups such as youth, women, small farmers, and SMEs by fostering
an environment conducive to their participation in the financial sector. This
entails the development of innovative business models that cater to the needs of
underserved populations, thereby ensuring sustainable profits while promoting
social inclusion.
Another critical aspect addressed by the AFCFTA is the integration and
consolidation of disparate capital markets across the continent. With the
exception of South Africa, African financial systems are characterized by thin
and dysfunctional markets, as evidenced by the underdeveloped nature of stock
exchanges. These markets suffer from low capitalization and trading activity
compared to similar markets in other low-income countries outside Africa.
It is imperative to consolidate these markets through regional cooperation
initiatives, which may involve harmonizing trading laws, standardizing
accounting practices, and promoting currency convertibility. Furthermore, the
development of skilled financial manpower is essential to support the growth and
stability of African financial systems. As finance and financial innovation
become increasingly complex, there is a growing need for talent capable of
managing and controlling risk within these systems.
This entails developing a deeper understanding of risk management among African
financial regulators and institutions. Collaboration between local and
international knowledge institutions can play a crucial role in producing
competent financial professionals and regulators who can effectively navigate
the complexities of modern financial systems.
In summary, the AFCFTA aims to accelerate domestic resource mobilization,
promote financial innovation and inclusion, integrate and consolidate capital
markets, and develop talented financial manpower across Africa. These efforts
are essential for fostering economic growth, stability, and inclusivity within
the continent's financial systems.
By addressing these challenges and harnessing the potential of African financial
markets, the AFCFTA has the potential to drive sustainable development and
prosperity across the continent.
Conclusion
Over the past six decades, Africa has undergone significant transformation, with
its demographic landscape poised to double its population in the next 25 years.
Embracing a reformist approach that responds to this demand will unlock higher
growth prospects. Regional integration emerges as a crucial strategy for
enlarging African markets. Intra-African trade currently stands at a global low
of approximately 15%, contrasting sharply with figures such as 54% in the North
American Free Trade Area, 70% within the European Union, and 60% in Asia.
There is a palpable momentum for integration across various sectors and societal
levels, as people actively seek to strengthen connections with one another.
AFCFTA is aiming at integrating the market of 55 Countries of Africa which has a
combined GDP of 3.4 trillion. This is a big market aiming African on taking
advantage of the Market. Investors from Africa Should be the first to benefit
from this Market.
It is the mobilizing factor for African governments who have really worked on
consolidating a relationship between two countries with the purpose of bringing
people together. Hence, the AFCFTA will be a game changer for global trade
agreements.
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